"Cone of Uncertainty"

That phrase may not mean anything to some folks, but mention it to anyone who lives along the Gulf Coast (or any hurricane-prone area) and they'll know immediately what you're talking about. We are currently smack-dab in the middle of that appropriately named cone as we play the hurry-up-and-wait game with Gustav. I have had a bad feeling (joo-joo as Lee calls it) about this storm for several days now. Seriously, when I looked at the forecast track the first time the weather guys started talking about the newest tropical wave, the baby hairs on the back of my neck stood up. Things should have gotten a little better over the next few days, because the forecast seemed to be taking the storm well away from us. Still the heebie-jeebies stayed with me.

Background information:  Lee and I are total weather nerds. He grew up in South Alabama tracking hurricanes from a very early age. It was not unusual for him to miss days, and sometimes even weeks, of school because of power outages from a storm. In Tuscaloosa, I was farther away from that particular action, but my dad's idea of a perfect evening was sitting in his comfy recliner watching the radar pattern on the local weather channel. No lie. Elevator music and all. My family was always "in the know" about current weather events. Sounds funny, I know, but it probably saved the lives of my mom, dad and youngest sister when a tornado ripped through their area on December 16, 2000. My sister's family was all safe, but their home was a total loss. We have a very healthy respect for what a "good" storm can do.

Back to present. There are several weather sites that Lee and I have bookmarked to see current updates on approaching storms. Usually, there are some differences of opinion on the when, where, how strong, etc., but according to the concept of the "Cone of Uncertainty," the closer you get to the event, the less uncertainty there is. All of the models tend to converge and agree eventually. This morning, there was still a good bit of disagreement. AccuWeather, a site that was incredibly accurate tracking both Katrina and Ivan, was predicting that Gustav would make landfall as a Category 3 storm on Tuesday near Galveston, Texas. That sounded pretty good. (Well, not for Galveston, I guess.) Then, I saw that two other sites, the NHC (National Hurricane Center) and Weather Underground were predicting that by Monday morning at 8:00, Gustav would be a Cat 3 storm in the Gulf of Mexico just to the SE of New Orleans. Not so good for us. 

Then, the warning emails began about rising gas costs and supply shortages. (from people "in the know") That's a bit worrisome. So, I decided to err on the side of caution and go top off the tank in my van. Well, I guess most everyone else in our county had the same thought. The lines at all 8 pumps were at least three-deep and most everyone there was not only filling up his own vehicle, but also gas containers. Even more worrisome. Now, the models all seem to be moving a little more eastward....... more in a direction that will affect us. Our local weatherman is right this very minute telling me to "take the next two days to get all of your emergency supplies together and plan out your evacuation route." 

I'm not sure what our Labor Day will look like, but I'm pretty sure it won't involve grilling out burgers in the backyard. Not here, anyway. I'm just glad that by then, Lee will be back from Nashville and we'll be able to deal (together) with whatever Gustav brings. Lee was in California when Katrina hit and that was no fun for either of us. 

Still watching and wondering within the "Cone,"

Mel